Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,681
2 New Jersey 18,482
3 Massachusetts 15,007
4 Rhode Island 14,575
5 District of Columbia 13,222
6 Connecticut 12,332
7 Delaware 10,209
8 Illinois 10,106
9 Maryland 9,691
10 Louisiana 9,234
11 Nebraska 8,082
12 Iowa 6,907
13 Michigan 6,470
14 Pennsylvania 6,249
15 South Dakota 6,147
16 Virginia 5,937
17 Mississippi 5,802
18 Indiana 5,693
19 Minnesota 4,946
20 Colorado 4,859
21 Georgia 4,649
22 New Mexico 4,263
23 Alabama 4,180
24 Tennessee 3,925
25 Utah 3,769
26 North Dakota 3,758
27 New Hampshire 3,708
28 Arizona 3,699
29 Kansas 3,620
30 Wisconsin 3,598
31 North Carolina 3,400
32 California 3,340
33 Ohio 3,291
34 Washington 3,291
35 Nevada 3,140
36 Arkansas 3,123
37 Florida 2,976
38 South Carolina 2,774
39 Texas 2,619
40 Kentucky 2,550
41 Missouri 2,441
42 Maine 1,911
43 Oklahoma 1,807
44 Idaho 1,764
45 Vermont 1,703
46 Wyoming 1,636
47 Puerto Rico 1,560
48 West Virginia 1,196
49 Oregon 1,140
50 Alaska 803
51 Montana 509
52 Hawaii 468

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 188
2 Michigan 180
3 Utah 127
4 Maryland 115
5 Arkansas 110
6 Virginia 110
7 North Carolina 107
8 District of Columbia 100
9 Alabama 97
10 Minnesota 95
11 New Mexico 93
12 Iowa 89
13 Louisiana 89
14 Nebraska 89
15 South Carolina 82
16 Mississippi 79
17 California 76
18 Illinois 76
19 South Dakota 71
20 Tennessee 70
21 Connecticut 68
22 Delaware 67
23 North Dakota 67
24 Massachusetts 66
25 Indiana 65
26 New Jersey 61
27 Nevada 60
28 Florida 58
29 Washington 58
30 Georgia 57
31 Texas 53
32 Wisconsin 50
33 New York 49
34 Puerto Rico 49
35 Kentucky 45
36 New Hampshire 40
37 Pennsylvania 40
38 Colorado 37
39 Missouri 37
40 Rhode Island 36
41 Ohio 34
42 Maine 30
43 Oregon 26
44 Kansas 24
45 Alaska 20
46 Oklahoma 20
47 Vermont 19
48 Idaho 18
49 Wyoming 14
50 West Virginia 7
51 Hawaii 4
52 Montana 2

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,551
2 New Jersey 1,370
3 Connecticut 1,141
4 Massachusetts 1,061
5 Rhode Island 728
6 District of Columbia 692
7 Louisiana 631
8 Michigan 590
9 Illinois 468
10 Pennsylvania 468
11 Maryland 454
12 Delaware 408
13 Indiana 342
14 Mississippi 274
15 Colorado 265
16 Minnesota 212
17 New Hampshire 210
18 Ohio 203
19 Georgia 202
20 Iowa 192
21 New Mexico 188
22 Virginia 172
23 Washington 152
24 Arizona 143
25 Nevada 142
26 Alabama 141
27 Missouri 134
28 Florida 125
29 California 117
30 Wisconsin 111
31 Kentucky 107
32 South Carolina 106
33 Nebraska 101
34 North Dakota 98
35 North Carolina 97
36 Vermont 88
37 Oklahoma 87
38 Kansas 80
39 Maine 73
40 South Dakota 73
41 Texas 63
42 Tennessee 60
43 Arkansas 51
44 Idaho 46
45 West Virginia 46
46 Puerto Rico 44
47 Oregon 38
48 Utah 37
49 Wyoming 29
50 Montana 16
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 9
2 New Jersey 7
3 District of Columbia 6
4 Connecticut 5
5 Massachusetts 5
6 Rhode Island 5
7 Delaware 4
8 Illinois 4
9 Maryland 4
10 Minnesota 4
11 Indiana 3
12 Louisiana 3
13 New Hampshire 3
14 Pennsylvania 3
15 Alabama 2
16 Arizona 2
17 Mississippi 2
18 New Mexico 2
19 New York 2
20 North Dakota 2
21 California 1
22 Florida 1
23 Georgia 1
24 Iowa 1
25 Ohio 1
26 South Carolina 1
27 Virginia 1
28 Wisconsin 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Arkansas 0
31 Colorado 0
32 Hawaii 0
33 Idaho 0
34 Kansas 0
35 Kentucky 0
36 Maine 0
37 Missouri 0
38 Montana 0
39 Nebraska 0
40 Nevada 0
41 North Carolina 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,538 1 99
Lake Tennessee 103,193 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 85,389 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,630 4 99
Nobles Minnesota 73,605 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 8,868 251 92
Richland South Carolina 4,204 667 78
Pierce Washington 2,577 1052 66
Orange California 2,386 1122 64
York South Carolina 1,655 1461 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,074 1 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 2 99
Early Georgia 3,042 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,220 5 99
Richland South Carolina 164 626 80
Davidson Tennessee 105 828 73
Pierce Washington 94 885 71
Orange California 56 1190 62
York South Carolina 36 1409 55

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons